August 17, 2021– Now it’s time to get real. No more magical thinking that the “interpreter problem” will solve itself, that the Ashraf Ghani government is a stable, supple entity, or that the Afghan security forces will wake up and start fighting. Also, we have an armed Taliban army that controls the lands of our former ally. And we have an American expeditionary force, sent to Kabul to protect an evacuation, that could become entrapped among a sea of enemies. What to do?
First, believe it or not, we need to talk to the Taliban. Everyone who we want to save who’s not already located at Kabul international airport is in enemy-held territory. The women and children whose social environments have been upended, they are there too. The Taliban may go on a rampage, but they will grow tired of killing, and distressed at the international condemnation they will incur. This situation is ripe for an orderly departure program. The United States previously ran such a program with Cuba, and with Thailand we had such a program for the Hmong in Laos, and the Vietnam era of “boat people” ended with a quasi-program of this sort. The U.S. needs to waive immigration paperwork and issue laissez-passer permissions to Afghans who want to leave.They can process out through the airport. There’s been talk of some intermediate “holding area”-type destination–the U.S. used Guam for this purpose after the collapse of South Vietnam–but those kinds of considerations are exactly what leads to red tape and more/worse bureaucratic nightmares. Just get the thing done.
Our troops at the airport will also benefit from a better understanding of their relationship with their adversary. Orderly departure will take off the pressure and make it less likely that some outburst between Taliban and U.S. soldiers will erupt and turn into full-scale war. Don’t forget our forces are surrounded, not numerous, and at the end of a tenuous aerial supply line that has also to serve as the main avenue for evacuation of our Afghan friends. This could easily turn into a repeat of 1839 and the massacre of a residual British force trying to evacuate into India.
Done properly, orderly departure could function well enough that, under the best case, American troops could hand over to Taliban Afghans who would continue to facilitate the flow of refugees–who, by the way–would be people now able to carry critical documents and possessions with them. In the near term the U.S. security perimeter would be there to dissuade the Taliban from false moves. Apart from everything else, Orderly Departure would greatly reduce the probability of panic, which is among the most dangerous aspects of the current situation.
Done properly, an orderly departure program could manifest as an ingenious political move from the Biden administration. If talks fail, or if a program starts and then ruptures, Biden will also avoid charges he did nothing for our Afghan friends. There’s little to lose but plenty to be gained here. The rush to apportion blame for Afghanistan is stupid–the blame goes everywhere and the struggle to one-up the opponent distracts from the real crisis. Blame is really an extension of magical thinking.